It’s a new year. In addition to unrealistic resolutions, I’m also a self-professed technology prognosticator. Here are my five technology predictions for 2013.
1. Tablet sales will exceed laptop sales
I’m pretty sure anyone can predict this was coming. With a Nexus 7 32GB priced at $269CAN, you can be sure that people will add tablets to their technology arsenal. The popularity of the iPad shows there is a demand for tablets but cost tended to be a deterrent. Now, as prices continue to drop and new options like Windows 8 becomes available, tablet sales will continue to rise and exceed laptop sales.
2. Windows Phone 8 will surpass RIM in worldwide marketshare
According this Gartner report, Windows Phone 8 had 2.4% of the worldwide market share in Q32012. However, with the push for Window 8 laptops, desktops, and tablet, I’m confident phone sales will rise.
3. Boxed software will continue to decline
Is there really any reason to sell boxed software? The packaging is a waste of precious resources. Chances are, the minute you install the software, you’ll need to download an update anyways. With the prevalence of ultrabooks, there will be fewer laptops with cd/dvd/blu-ray drives. Digital downloads continue to rise and using in excess of 1GB/day is starting to be a norm.
4. BB10 will be the last OS for RIM
As a Canadian, I hope RIM can succeed with BB10 but I think this will be the last year for RIM. BB10 will have to exceed the offerings for both Android or iOS to sway consumers and corporate clients. Even if BB10 is solid, there is still the challenge of a small number of apps available for BB10. Microsoft is still struggling to convince developers to create apps for Windows Phone 8. What can RIM to attract developers?
5. Netbooks will cease to exist
I’m pretty sure netbooks are dead already. With tablets and thin laptops, there is no value in buying a netbook.